cross-posted from: https://hachyderm.io/users/maegul/statuses/112442514504667645
Google’s play on Search, Ads and AI feels obvious to me.
* They know search is broken.
* And that people use AI in part because it takes the ads and SEO crap out.
* IE, AI is now what Google was in 2000. A simple window onto the internet.
* Ads/SEO profits will fall with AI.
* But Google will then just insert shit into AI “answers” for money.
* Ads managed + up-to-date AI will be their new mote and golden goose.See @caseynewton 's blog post: https://mastodon.social/@caseynewton/112442253435702607
Cntd (Edit):
That search/SEO is broken seems to be part of the game plan here.
It’s probably like Russia burning Moscow against Napoleon and a hell of a privilege Google enjoy with their monopoly.
I’ve seen people opt for chatGPT/AI precisely because it’s clean, simple and spam free, because it isn’t Google Search.
And as @caseynewton said … the web is now in managed decline.
For those of us who like it, it’s up to us to build what we need for ourselves. Big tech has moved on
The writing I see on the wall is that these AI require such a large data set to create that only mega corps are going to have them. They allow some free access now, but in a few years they’re gonna start enshittifying the free tier and jack up prices
Absolutely.
And this is why I’m seeing Google winning this. They’ve got the infrastructure for both running and training their AI as well as the long standing web scraping for getting in as much data as soon as possible. But they’ve also got the ads business and the brand and user base. Together, they’ll be the first to get AI tech to the point of being able to insert ads or other paid endorsements (however hard that is) and the first monetise that through ads and userbase size. Meanwhile Microsoft (OpenAI’s backer) will probably do what MS has often done which is fail to piece together a coherent business model and squander an opportunity on failing to monetise.
I describe what Microsoft does as having all of the correct Lego pieces and still fucking up putting it together, every time.
Then taking it apart to put it back together only for it to somehow be better in some ways and much worse in others.
Lather, rinse, repeat, sprinkle in some anti-competitive shit too.
perfect!