I remember you saying that that was exactly the plan, so that they could bleed the western economies to death right there at the eastern border of Ukraine
The economies? I could see the argument for Russia bleeding Western political support for Ukraine, but it’s just fantasy (or propaganda) to suggest a single economy the size of Russia could bleed the combined economies of all Western countries to death.
Japan is currently in recession. The UK is currently in recession. Germany is “likely in recession”. France is stagnating at 0% GDP growth in 2023Q3 and 2023Q4 (not technically a recession, but only by a hair). Italy is barely avoiding a recession. Outside of North America, no G7 company expects greater than 1% GDP growth in 2024.
Meanwhile, the US is seeing substantially hotter inflation numbers than expected, leading many to expect rate cuts to be delayed even further (despite the European Central Bank signaling their intention to lower rates soon). As a result, US interest payments are expected to exceed defence spending.
Western economies bleeding is not some prediction of the future: it’s an observation of present circumstances. Whether Russia is responsible is up for debate, but it’s undoubtable that Western economies are suffering and the only moderately resilient ones have proven to be the US and Canada.
And yet, if I remember right that was exactly the argument.
I do think there were some legit things in what they were saying yeah – Russia’s surviving the sanctions quite well, and they’ve been producing a fuck of a lot of artillery whereas individual countries in the West have sometimes had problems as they ramp up production again for a variety of reasons. But using that all to extrapolate out to, Russia’s going to outproduce the whole of the West and that’s exactly the plan and why they’re still (for now at least) stuck at the border, that doesn’t make a ton of sense to me no.
If all countries under discussion ramped up to full war time economies, like Russia is already doing, the West would outproduce Russia by at least an order of magnitude, maybe even two. Any suggestion otherwise is either ignorant or a bad faith argument.
But I think Putin knows this fact of economical imbalance, as he’s doing a superb job undercutting Western support of Ukraine through subversion of the political process via corrupt politicians, keeping the US and others in a state of hand-wringing and infighting. If he truly believed any of his own propaganda, he would already actually be at war with NATO (instead of just claiming to be and not actually touching any NATO territory), and the West would coalesce around the clear immediate threat and begin the war time economic ramp up.
If all countries under discussion ramped up to full war time economies, like Russia is already doing, the West would outproduce Russia by at least an order of magnitude, maybe even two.
Well, sure. But you may as well say “if all countries under discussion magically whisked an army of robot supersoldiers into existence, they’d outpace Russia’s fighting ability by an order of magnitude.” It’s just a pipe dream that ignores the material reality of the entire situation. The countries under discussion can’t ramp up to “full war time economies” because they’ve long ago outsourced nearly all of their production capacity. If right now, they dropped everything else in order to rebuild their productive forces (that they willingly and knowingly dismantled for the sake of finance capital profits and honestly to also prevent domestic labor from having the kind of leverage it used to have) then it would take well more than a decade to get back to the kind of productive capacity necessary to outproduce Russia the way you’re talking about. And that’s if we’re being extremely generous. That’s simply not going to happen for numerous reasons ranging from the greed of finance capital to plain old logistics.
This is the economic imbalance that “Putin knows.” He has known it all along and never needed to undercut western support of Ukraine because of it. The waning support from the west is due to the fact that they’re now realizing what a lost cause Ukraine truly is and that no NATO Wunderwaffen or boomeranging giga-sanctions are going to save them.
subversion of the political process via corrupt politicians, keeping the US and others in a state of hand-wringing and infighting
This is just silly. Putin does not have that kind of ability.
believed any of his own propaganda, he would already actually be at war with NATO (instead of just claiming to be and not actually touching any NATO territory), and the West would coalesce around the clear immediate threat and begin the war time economic ramp up.
Fantasy land. Cloud cuckoo. Complete failure to understand how geopolitics even begins to work in the age of nuclear powers, or even the meaning of the term proxy war, let alone the material circumstances of the countries you’re talking about.
The West would outproduce Russia by at least an order of magnitude, maybe even two.
No it couldn’t. They have already been trying to ramp up production and keep running into problems like shortages in cotton and lead times for factories.
The economies? I could see the argument for Russia bleeding Western political support for Ukraine, but it’s just fantasy (or propaganda) to suggest a single economy the size of Russia could bleed the combined economies of all Western countries to death.
Japan is currently in recession. The UK is currently in recession. Germany is “likely in recession”. France is stagnating at 0% GDP growth in 2023Q3 and 2023Q4 (not technically a recession, but only by a hair). Italy is barely avoiding a recession. Outside of North America, no G7 company expects greater than 1% GDP growth in 2024.
Meanwhile, the US is seeing substantially hotter inflation numbers than expected, leading many to expect rate cuts to be delayed even further (despite the European Central Bank signaling their intention to lower rates soon). As a result, US interest payments are expected to exceed defence spending.
Western economies bleeding is not some prediction of the future: it’s an observation of present circumstances. Whether Russia is responsible is up for debate, but it’s undoubtable that Western economies are suffering and the only moderately resilient ones have proven to be the US and Canada.
And yet, if I remember right that was exactly the argument.
I do think there were some legit things in what they were saying yeah – Russia’s surviving the sanctions quite well, and they’ve been producing a fuck of a lot of artillery whereas individual countries in the West have sometimes had problems as they ramp up production again for a variety of reasons. But using that all to extrapolate out to, Russia’s going to outproduce the whole of the West and that’s exactly the plan and why they’re still (for now at least) stuck at the border, that doesn’t make a ton of sense to me no.
If all countries under discussion ramped up to full war time economies, like Russia is already doing, the West would outproduce Russia by at least an order of magnitude, maybe even two. Any suggestion otherwise is either ignorant or a bad faith argument.
But I think Putin knows this fact of economical imbalance, as he’s doing a superb job undercutting Western support of Ukraine through subversion of the political process via corrupt politicians, keeping the US and others in a state of hand-wringing and infighting. If he truly believed any of his own propaganda, he would already actually be at war with NATO (instead of just claiming to be and not actually touching any NATO territory), and the West would coalesce around the clear immediate threat and begin the war time economic ramp up.
Well, sure. But you may as well say “if all countries under discussion magically whisked an army of robot supersoldiers into existence, they’d outpace Russia’s fighting ability by an order of magnitude.” It’s just a pipe dream that ignores the material reality of the entire situation. The countries under discussion can’t ramp up to “full war time economies” because they’ve long ago outsourced nearly all of their production capacity. If right now, they dropped everything else in order to rebuild their productive forces (that they willingly and knowingly dismantled for the sake of finance capital profits and honestly to also prevent domestic labor from having the kind of leverage it used to have) then it would take well more than a decade to get back to the kind of productive capacity necessary to outproduce Russia the way you’re talking about. And that’s if we’re being extremely generous. That’s simply not going to happen for numerous reasons ranging from the greed of finance capital to plain old logistics.
This is the economic imbalance that “Putin knows.” He has known it all along and never needed to undercut western support of Ukraine because of it. The waning support from the west is due to the fact that they’re now realizing what a lost cause Ukraine truly is and that no NATO Wunderwaffen or boomeranging giga-sanctions are going to save them.
This is just silly. Putin does not have that kind of ability.
Fantasy land. Cloud cuckoo. Complete failure to understand how geopolitics even begins to work in the age of nuclear powers, or even the meaning of the term proxy war, let alone the material circumstances of the countries you’re talking about.
No it couldn’t. They have already been trying to ramp up production and keep running into problems like shortages in cotton and lead times for factories.