ColombianLenin [he/him]

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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • I’m starting to think that the US is being consistently 10 years behind where they should be.

    • They should have pushed for Ukraine into NATO by 2004, not 2014, Russia was much weaker then.
    • They should have decoupled from China by 2014, not now. China was much more dependent on the US and the rapid industrialization and initiatives like BRICS and the BRI under Xi Jinping where a paper note.
    • They would have probably had more success in pushing Iran out since they were much weaker under sanctions.
    • In the case of Venezuela? With the huge migratory flows after the oil sanctions and Venezuela’s hyper inflation, as well as the right wing wave in the region, the US could have tried an overt invasion campaign and would have likely succeeded.

    Now, I think none of those countries are as weak as 10 years ago. In fact ALL of them are in their relative peaks.




  • Several issues with your comment

    1. Venezuela has not been a large oil exporter for a long time due to sanctions. That is exactly why the Venezuelan economy was in shambles in the 2010’s. Venezuela’s economy has been strengthened lately in spite of the sanctions and due to larger self reliance in food sovereignty.

    2. Venezuela hasn’t been a large economic partner to China, my guess is due to physical distance and because China can supply themselves with nearby partners like Iran, and also China is accelerating becoming fossil fuel free for energy sovereignty.

    3. You say that putting Venezuela in chaos will give America a decade to shift to China. Venezuela has never been any kind of military threat to the US for them to have the need to suppress them for a switch.

    4. In fact, the US pivoting to Venezuela will actually help China in the fact that China can keep doing nothing and winning. I think this pivot to Latinoamérica is more about the US conceding the fight in Asia and consolidating US influence in the western hemisphere. Multipolarity at the expense of the billion people here.


  • Yeah, the conditions that caused the fall of Bolivia are really not present in Venezuela today.

    • The political opposition is split between people that want intervention and people that don’t.
    • The PSUV is firmly galvanized against intervention, and there is no factionalism, as happened between Evo and Luis Arce.
    • The people are firmly against intervention, even the right wing in civil society does not accept it.
    • The left in civil society is armed (!) and organized in civil militias.

    I think the US attacking Venezuela would surely cause huge damage and death. They might even kill Maduro. But causing a collapse of the Bolivarian Revolution is unlikely IMO. It doesn’t discard the fact that Latinoamérica is bound for some years of hell if this intervention goes through.

    Death to Amerikkka of course.