A minority government of Red-Green-Red (SPD, Grüne, Linke) would force the conservatives to either work productively with the other democratic parties or side with the fascists of the AFD. It would basically boil down to whether or not Merz will do again what he promised he wouldn’t do (working with the AFD). Should he do that, I very much expect the CDU to “decapitate” itself by splitting from left to right: The MAGA people around Merz, Linnemann, Spahn and Dobrindt get ousted by the traditional conservatives.